Thank you to our 1,400+ subscribers. Before the new picks, here's a full review of every signal we've published.
SIGNAL TRACK RECORD
Signal #001 (Mar 30 → Apr 27): +20.52% L/S
Longs +20.50% | Shorts +0.03% | SPY +13.15%
The long book drove this signal. STX +64.4%, MOH +36.3%, AMAT +25.3%. 7 of 8 longs positive. Short book finished flat in a market that rallied 13%. CLOSED (WIN).
Signal #002 (Apr 13 → May 11): +5.96% L/S
Longs +2.48% | Shorts +3.48% | SPY +7.75%
The short book outperformed the long book. PH +11.64%, ITW +8.17%, CMS +6.70%. Made +3.48% shorting stocks while SPY rallied nearly 8%. Was -2.51% at its worst, came back to finish +5.96%. CLOSED (WIN).
Signal #003 (Apr 29 → May 27): +0.19% L/S
Longs -2.19% | Shorts +2.38% | SPY +5.46%
7 of 8 shorts were profitable in a market that rallied +5.46%. That is extremely difficult to do. WTW +12.43%, MSI +4.78%, DTE +1.20%, WEC +1.20%. The short selection process continues to work — the model identified names that fell while SPY ripped higher. The long book was the broken leg. Two names lost -11.7% and -12.8% and dragged the average. The basket finished essentially flat. CLOSED (FLAT).
Signal #004 (May 13 → ongoing, Day 10 of 20): +3.09% L/S
Longs +7.20% | Shorts -1.03% | SPY +1.10% | Alpha vs SPY: +1.98%
All 8 longs are green. Every single one. VST +12.30%, EL +11.04%, ACN +10.47%, CRM +7.04%, DASH +5.71%, URI +5.66%, EXPE +4.14%, OXY +1.26%. This is the strongest long book we've produced. 10 trading days left.
Four signals completed or in progress. Three positive L/S spreads. Every signal has produced a profitable short book except Signal #004, which is being carried by an exceptional long book instead. The model adapts, when the short book carries, the longs can lag. When the longs carry, the shorts can lag. The spread is what compounds.
SIGNAL #005: May 27, 2026
Horizon: 10-20 Trading Days
Longs:
• ADI — Analog Devices
• GNRC — Generac Holdings
• IBM — IBM
• PM — Philip Morris International
• TTWO — Take-Two Interactive
• PWR — Quanta Services
• CVS — CVS Health
• EL — Estée Lauder
Shorts:
• LNT — Alliant Energy
• EVRG — Evergy
• CB — Chubb
• AWK — American Water Works
• MCD — McDonald's
• HLT — Hilton Worldwide
• CPT — Camden Property Trust
• ACGL — Arch Capital Group
The long book is built around semis (ADI), industrials (GNRC, PWR), healthcare (CVS), consumer (EL, PM, TTWO), and tech (IBM). Broad sector diversification, no single sector dominates.
The short side carries the same conviction the model has held across all five signals. Utilities (LNT, EVRG, AWK) have appeared in nearly every signal. Insurance (CB, ACGL) and REITs (CPT) continue to be flagged. HLT is new, up +33% over the past year, the model sees it as overextended. MCD is down -17% over the past three months and the model sees further downside from here.
The regime split is notable: GMM reads Bull, HMM reads Bear. The surface looks strong but the underlying structure is fragile. The model positions accordingly, diversified value longs with persistent defensive shorts.
We will track this signal daily and send updates as it progresses. Signal #004 continues tracking with 10 days remaining.
We appreciate your support as we continue building Alphatica. The focus remains on the research and letting the results speak for themselves.
DISCLOSURE & DISCLAIMER
This communication is provided by Alphatica Quantitative Research for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any returns, signals, model outputs, or performance metrics referenced herein are based on historical backtesting, live tracking, or hypothetical analysis and may not be replicated in the future. Historical results do not guarantee future performance. Markets are inherently uncertain, volatile, and subject to rapid change. Losses, including total loss of invested capital, are possible and may occur without warning.
The signals provided reflect the output of quantitative models that rely on historical data and statistical relationships. These models are subject to limitations including but not limited to: data errors, model overfitting, regime changes, liquidity constraints, execution slippage, and unforeseen market events. The models do not account for individual financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax implications, or liquidity needs.
Alphatica does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or reliability of any information provided. Information is provided 'as is' without warranty of any kind, express or implied.
Short selling involves substantial risk, including the potential for unlimited losses. Options and leveraged strategies carry additional risks that may not be suitable for all investors. Recipients should consult a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or legal counsel before making any investment decisions.
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